4 Key Geopolitical Trends For 2018 - Be Aware

The following information was reproduced from a newsletter emailed to me from Stratfor WORLDVIEW (an excellent publication, which I highly recommend). I feel strongly that this information is critical to be studied as we rapidly approach the new year. While I am inclined to agree with most of what is set forth in the way of prognostication here, I do not certify the accuracy of the information as presented. I am also pleased to point out that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not the "hot feature" of this piece of writing. - Douglas Castle

Four Key Geopolitical Trends for 2018

The Stratfor Worldview team monitors and forecasts political, economic and security events across the globe. In this short video, hear about four geopolitical trends that you should watch for in 2018.  The North Korea Ripple Effect U.S. Trade Policy Iran and the Middle East The Global Oil Market Stay informed about the most significant geopolitical meetings and events planned for the year ahead. Watch Reva Goujon's video clip here.

“SORRY” Has Become A Four-Letter Word

“SORRY” Has Become A Four-Letter Word

A profound and prolific apology after a colossal foul-up or political disaster has become an actual perfunctory insult to the offended or wronged parties. It sounds insincere, feels weak and needy, invites other questions (and other concessions) and makes you look foolish. No one says this better than author and success coach, Oren Klaff of “Pitch Anything”. The idea is to just work right past the error or gaffe and move forward, selling more strongly than ever. The text that follows comes from an email sent to me in 2016 (but it's still timely!) by Oren [I've left all of his grammatical and syntax errors intact, for which I make no apologies, and I've left his not-altogether-too-subtle sales pitches for his products as they appeared in the original text. Oren has some wonderful ideas and insights, except he desperately needs a proofreader... perhaps someone from Fiverr...]:

“Funny things pop out of my mouth from time to time. No preparation. No planning. It just happens. For example, a few weeks ago during a presentation to a group of financial analysts I said, “Guys, I
can’t sugar coat this for you ... I’m not #@%! WILLY WONKA.”
 
Although, I thought that was HILARIOUS at the time ... no one laughed. There was just some
uncomfortable coughing and a few chairs shuffled.
 
My first reaction was to apologize, so my mind starting forming the words,“ ... uhh, sorry about
that ..."

But my training kicked in, and I told myself: Keep moving forward, don’t explain yourself, do not act ‘needy’ or seek validation.

Ok, sure, I know that apologizing is necessary when we’ve clearly hurt someone else, violated a rule, or done something we know to be wrong. And saying sorry is a necessary step in some situations to repair the social fabric that keeps us connected to other people.

But in business, a gushing apology can be exactly the wrong move.

For example, WE ALL want to keep our clients happy, so it can be tempting to say “sorry” for things that get off track —
- but It’s important to recognize that apologizing unnecessarily can actually undercut your professionalism by displaying neediness and diminishing others’ confidence in you.

It reminds me of the other day when a CEO called and asked if he could see me. He had a serious problem, so we booked a meeting.

That’s how every week starts for me. Like an episode of SUITS, at 9am Monday, some kind of trouble walks through the door and I have 24 hours to save the client’s company or The Senior Partners Will Be Very Mad.

This client shuffled his way into my waiting room, downcast and dejected.

His shoulders slumped. He was in big trouble. When a guy looks like that, it’s either a woman problem or a money problem and given my track record, people usually don’t want my advice on women.

He told me what had happened at his company. His servers had crashed during a live event. Customers lost money.

“I have to go on the road and give my largest customers a personal apology,” he said, “or I’m going to lose a lot of business.”

“Tell me what you plan to say,” I said. ”Let me hear your pitch.”

And then came the El Niño of Bad Ideas:

He was going to apologize for a flaw that made the servers crash;
He was going to give discounts; and refunds.
And he planned to use the history of his relationship with the client, like Sal Tessio in The Godfather.
Sal Tessio: Can you get me off the hook, Tom? For old times' sake?
Tom Hagen: [shakes his head] Can't do it, Sally.
[Tom watches sadly as Sal is led to a waiting car]

Obviously, Sal was killed in that scene; as my client would get killed if he pleaded for forgiveness.
So, when he was done pouring his heart out, I poured him a cup of something strong and let him sip it slowly, preparing him for what I would say next:

There will be No Discounts. No Refunds. No Sob Story. “In fact,” I said, “you’re going to visit the customers, give them ONE quick and sincere ‘sorry’ and then upsell them to a higher level of service.”

His eyes opened wide.
 
I told him, when you highlight and dwell your own mistakes you trigger theRecency Effect — the
tendency to blow things that have just happened out of proportion.
In the business world, apologies, explanations, not to mention sappy pleas for mercy do nothing but stir up emotions and anger. My client needed to focus on the future.

First, I told this this CEO to read my book, PITCH ANYTHING. On page 157 I show that offering discounts and acting needy will actually harm a business relationship more than it helps.

Look, even your toughest clients will agree, the past is a done deal. It’s gone. Dust. They will accept that now is the time to turn over the Etch-a-Sketch and give it shake, wipe the slate clean.

Why You Should Only Give a Single Brief Word of Sorry After a High-Profile Mistake

No matter how sincere, your mea culpas can come off sounding empty. Only by taking the right action can you repair your broken reputation.

Consider for a moment, what do Charlie Sheen, Anthony Weiner and Tiger Woods all have in common?

They all apologized right after a major personal crisis.

I believe, in the US, this type of apology has become so cliché, it's lost all its credibility, because In short, we don't buy post-crises apologies anymore.

Here’s my four-point plan for cleaning up after any mistake:
 
1. Write a one-paragraph Big Idea nods to the mistake, but talks about the future. Then memorize it. Here’s an example:

Today’s servers are the most complex devices man has ever invented. They move terabytes of data in microseconds, and we humans have come to rely on them. Or perhaps the word is OVERRELY, for they are machines and they can fail. In fact, these failures are a right-of-passage for any fast growing company, letting them know, it’s time to upgrade, improve and invest in more infrastructure than ever before ...

2. No one expects you to be perfect. Accurately describe what new systems or procedures you're installing as soon as possible and sell the client that new level of service.

3. Pitch the client like you would a new account. Don’t count on their goodwill, just their desire to buy great service at a fair price from a good company. Give a CLEAR description your new improved level of service. If you need best pitch your industry has ever seen, jump over to Pitch Mastery, I’ll make sure you get it done.

4. Get professional help. If you find yourself in a “situation” where you’ve really messed up and first three steps above aren't enough to tamp-down the crisis, enlist the support of a credible third-party professional who knows how to build a script to handle this kind of situation. The president has a script writer, so do Fortune 500 CEO’s and franchise athletes ... you’re no less important and you should have one too.

Whatever you do, best not expect a gushing apology to work. We live in a jaded, cynical society that has had its fill of sketchy executives, politicians, celebrities and athletes. So truly, a modern crisis means never having to say you're sorry. It means MORE than that: fixing your act, communicating the fixes as they're done and then quickly reestablishing your reputation.

Don’t wait to learn how to handle yourself until you’re in a tight situation. If you haven’t already, buy PITCH ANYTHING now. And do sign up for a free trial of Pitch Mastery.

Forward this email to anyone you think might benefit from it, so they can get on our mailing list.

I have to run, another client just walked in the door, he’s wearing thick glasses and has a large computer. I’m not sure what the problem is here, but I'll bet it's hard to pronounce.

See you next week when I cover the right way to start off any presentation (things I learned the hard way).

-Oren”

=> The Takeaway: Don't apologize unless you've truly hurt someone personally, lest you appear weak and incompetent. Take a lesson from the universally disliked (but desperately envied and admired) Donald Trump. Don't get caught in the quicksand of an apology.  Don't make it into an issue. Don't spend time falling into the trap of back peddling.

Thank you, as always, for reading me. - Douglas Castle

NO NEWS IS BAD NEWS - Leadership Requires Communication!

NO NEWS IS BAD NEWS

In Silence, People Tend To Think The Worst

In Management And Leadership, Frequent Communication Is Essential

During prolonged periods of silence, people are left to wonder; that wondering leads to visualization of negative possibilities and potentials (generally speaking, and in accord with the basic insecurities of Human Beings). The longer and more absolute the silence, the more these negative thoughts tend to propagate. If you are a leader, manager or commander and you are silent, any one or several of the following assumptions will likely be made regarding your lack of communication – ironically, your lack of communication speaks volumes:

~ You are overwhelmed by your workload, and you are not competent to handle the enormous responsibilities of leadership;

~ You are either ignoring your responsibilities and/or are searching for another role to play in another organization;

~ You have received devastatingly negative news that you are afraid to confront or announce;

~ You are disappointed in the work being performed by your subordinates, and you are either too disgusted with them to communicate with them or you are passively/aggressively punishing those guilty parties by depriving them of your attention;

~ You have lost your impetus and momentum as a driver, and are not accomplishing anything – therefore, you've nothing about which to converse.

Any of the above suppositions, all of which are common in cases of a lack of top-down communication, are bad for your personal brand, effectiveness, and relationship with your troops (or employees). You will be rendered less of a standard-bearer and more of a bag of ballast – and those who report to you will think 1) that the ship may be sinking on your watch, or 2) that they are failing you significantly enough to be rendered unworthy of your attention.

Communication, powerful and frequent, is one of the hallmarks of a truly good leader. Those whom you are charged with the responsibility of leading must know your status as well as their own in order for the enterprise not to fall prey to the ever-disabling rumor mill. Good leadership requires good communication skills as well as charisma and all of the other personality and management-style attributes I've discussed so many times before in other posts and articles.

If you need a quick reminder (in the style of the late lawyer Johnny Cochran), “If you don't converse, things will get worse.”

Whether the news is good or bad – don't ever let your troops, employees or teammates think that you are a cagey introvert (although you may well be one) or an escapist. Intensely introspective, quiet personalities may make for fine actuaries, but they generally make for poor leaders.

Thank you, as always, for reading me. - Douglas Castle

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Funding Startups Through Joint Ventures

Funding Startups Through Joint Ventures

Why It Might Be Smart To Form A Partnership With An Established Business

Entrepreneurs with brand-new pre-revenue companies, developmental-stage enterprises (DSEs) and fledgling companies having won their first client contracts are, generally speaking, desperately in need of capital. And, generally speaking, most funding sources shy away from companies with limited operating histories and limited tangible collateral assets. Yet these intrepid (but naive) newcomers insist on shopping the capital markets in search of either an investor or lender who will make them the “special exception” and grant them free rein and total discretion with a pile of money. Shopping in this marketplace is all too often a waste of time.

A more viable alternative for any one of these entities in need of cash might be to form a joint venture with an established and synergistic (or complementary) company. Not only do some of these existing companies have capital and credit lines of their own, but in many cases their management teams [at the senior level] have business acumen, contacts and other non-financial resources that can be leveraged by their younger counterpart in the joint venture relationship.

The key, of course, is in finding the right joint venture partner. In order to insure a productive, long-lasting (and non-traumatizing), entrepreneurs might give serious thought to utilizing the services of an outside management consulting firm or agency to facilitate the matchmaking process and to advise and assist in negotiating terms. In the immediate term, this may cost a bit of money, but in the near-term and the longer term, engaging the services of an independent third-party professional firm may save you the costs of a meandering, time-consuming, trial-and-error process.

Give some sincere thought to either financing your startup though a joint venture, or, if you are a well-established organization, to seeking out fresh, new co-venturing and licensing opportunities through an impartial, experienced consultant. In a well-crafted joint venture, all parties win.

If you have questions or thoughts regarding this brief article, please contact me via email at douglas.castle@yahoo.com .

As always, thank you for reading me. - Douglas Castle

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